FT · Spain: La Liga · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Deportivo 0–1 SevillaMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Deportivo or draw at 70%. Bawler had Deportivo at 42%, the draw at 27% and Sevilla at 30%. The match finished 0–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Deportivo win
42%
Draw
27%
Sevilla win
30%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.2
Total 2.7
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 74%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals sits at 74% in a fixture where Deportivo's 1.46 xG gives the hosts a narrow edge in a low-variance matchup projected at 2.66 combined chances."