FT · SPAIN: LaLiga · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Deportivo 3–1 ValenciaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Valencia or draw at 66%. Bawler had Deportivo at 34%, the draw at 28% and Valencia at 39%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Deportivo win
34%
Result
Draw
28%
Valencia win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.4
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 28%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.