FT · ENGLAND: Championship · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Derby County 2–2 Cardiff CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 22 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Derby County or draw at 77%. Bawler had Derby County at 50%, the draw at 27% and Cardiff City at 23%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Derby County win
50%
Draw
27%
Result
Cardiff City win
23%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.0
Total 2.6
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.4 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 2.0
From the match itself
The match produced 1.4 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Derby County or draw
Pre-match: 77%
Landed
Medium confidence
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.