How it finished
Derby County and Cardiff City drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 4. Derby County had 15 shots (7 on target) to Cardiff City's 16 (7), with 36% of the ball against 64%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.0.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Shots and corners are not shown for this fixture — we do not have enough counted matches for these sides yet.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
No first-half forecast for this fixture.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won Derby County vs Cardiff City?
Derby County and Cardiff City drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Derby County at 50% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 27%. It forecast 2.6 goals; the match produced 4. Derby County had 15 shots (7 on target) to Cardiff City's 16 (7), with 36% of the ball against 64%. Expected goals finished 1.6 to 2.0.
What was the final score in Derby County vs Cardiff City?
Derby County 2–2 Cardiff City, played on 22 Aug 2026 in the ENGLAND: Championship. Bawler's model had gone into it with Derby County 50%, the draw 27% and Cardiff City 23%.
What were the stats in Derby County vs Cardiff City?
Full-time: Possession 36%–64%, Expected goals (xG) 1.6–2.0, Shots 15–16, Shots on target 7–7, Shots inside box 12–10, Big chances 3–4, Corners 7–7, Saves 4–4, Fouls 12–10, Offsides 5–0, Yellow cards 5–1.
Did both teams score in Derby County vs Cardiff City?
Yes — both Derby County and Cardiff City scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 51% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for Derby County vs Cardiff City right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Derby County or draw 77%, it finished Draw (27% called); Total goals — we said 2.6, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 51%, it finished Yes; Second pick — we said Under 2.5 goals 52%, it finished Missed.