FT · England: Championship · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Derby County 0–1 West Bromwich AlbionMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026

Derby County
0–1
West Bromwich Albion win
West Bromwich Albion

Our call before kickoff

Our call missed

Before kickoff our call was Derby County or draw at 67%. Bawler had Derby County at 39%, the draw at 28% and West Bromwich Albion at 33%. The match finished 0–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

Derby County win
39%
Draw
28%
West Bromwich Albion win
33%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.3 – 1.2
Total 2.5
Actual
0 – 1
Total 1 (−1.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.2 – 0.4
From the match itself

The match produced 1.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Derby County or draw
Pre-match: 67%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Derby's lack of stakes against West Brom's relegation fight creates an edge for the home side or stalemate—the model forecasts Derby County or draw at 65% on an xG gap of just 0.03."

More from Bawler