> MATCH.PREDICT()·World: World Cup·Sunday 21 Jun, 00:00 UTC
Ecuador vs Curaçao
Bawler runs a Poisson model on rolling xG, normalised across leagues, adjusted for venue and injuries. This page shows the full chain — every number you can see is one we used.
Why the model calls it this way
Over 1.5 Goals lands at 75% probability because Ecuador's creator Moisés Caicedo and striker Enner Valencia combine for 34% of team xG in a fixture projecting 2.69 total goals.
Win probability
39.8% home31.6% draw28.6% away
xG chain — base → adjustments → final λ
EcuadorstepCuraçao
1.47Base xG · rolling 26-match1.22
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.47Final λ — what the Poisson uses1.22
Scoreline distribution · P(score) %bivariate Poisson
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0
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5
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10
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7
3
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home windrawaway win
BAWL OUTPro
Over 1.5 Goals + 1X + Enner Valencia 1+ Shot on Target
Model 29.8% · @ 3.35x
Take this pick →> More predictions for these teams
Statistical analysis for entertainment · Not betting advice · Model estimates, not guaranteed outcomes · 18+