World: World CupSunday 21 Jun, 00:00 UTC

Ecuador vCuraçao

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.69 goals expected
Ecuador 40%Draw 32%Curaçao 29%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
75%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 75% probability because Ecuador's creator Moisés Caicedo and striker Enner Valencia combine for 34% of team xG in a fixture projecting 2.69 total goals.

How we get there
EcuadorstepCuraçao
1.47Base xG · rolling 26-match1.22
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.47Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.22
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
75%
Curaçao or draw
52%
Over 3.5 goals
23%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Ecuador average 6.0 corners per game at home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
8
5
2
1
1
10
12
7
3
1
2
7
9
5
2
1
3
4
4
3
1
4
1
2
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Ecuador vs Curaçao — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Ecuador and Curaçao — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Ecuador 40% · draw 32% · Curaçao 29%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Ecuador 00 Curaçao
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.