World: World CupSaturday 27 Jun, 03:00 UTC

Egypt vIran

Most likely scoreline
11
12% of the time · 2.73 goals expected
Egypt 33%Draw 32%Iran 36%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
76%

Over 1.5 Goals lands at 76% because both sides project nearly identical attacking threat—Egypt 1.33 xG, Iran 1.40—making a low-scoring stalemate unlikely in open play.

How we get there
EgyptstepIran
1.33Base xG · rolling 26-match1.40
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.33Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.40
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
76%
Over 3.5 goals
25%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Egypt average 4.0 corners per game this season (3 competitive matches). Iran average 2.0 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
7
9
6
3
1
1
9
12
8
4
1
2
6
8
6
3
1
3
3
4
3
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

Most likely to score or assist

To score
Mohamed Salah
Egypt · Liverpool
55%
To score
Mehdi Taremi
Iran · Olympiacos
44%
To score
Omar Marmoush
Egypt · Man City
42%

Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.

More predictions for these teams

Egypt vs Iran — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Egypt and Iran — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Egypt 33% · draw 32% · Iran 36%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

⚡ Full-time recap available
Egypt 11 Iran
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.