FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Eintracht Frankfurt 2–2 SC FreiburgMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was SC Freiburg or draw at 64%. Bawler had Eintracht Frankfurt at 36%, the draw at 26% and SC Freiburg at 38%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Eintracht Frankfurt win
36%
Draw
26%
Result
SC Freiburg win
38%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as Frankfurt's Marmoush (28% of team xG) and Freiburg's Grifo (22% of team xG) anchor nearly identical attacking output—1.49 xG versus 1.44—in a fixture the model rates as evenly balanced."