FT · Spain: La Liga · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Elche 2–3 Real MadridMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 15 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Real Madrid or draw at 78%. Bawler had Elche at 22%, the draw at 23% and Real Madrid at 54%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Elche win
22%
Draw
23%
Real Madrid win
54%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.9
Total 3.1
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 3.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
Real Madrid to win
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 82%, driven by Real Madrid's 0.76 expected-goal advantage and Vinícius Júnior's attacking threat on the wing."