FT · Spain: La Liga · Monday, 07 September 2026
Elche 2–3 Real SociedadMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 07 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Elche or draw at 66%. Bawler had Elche at 40%, the draw at 26% and Real Sociedad at 34%. The match finished 2–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Elche win
40%
Draw
26%
Real Sociedad win
34%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.6 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 3
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Elche's relegation fight at home faces Real Sociedad's European ambitions with an even xG split (1.66 vs 1.49), yet Over 1.5 Goals projects at 82%—both teams' survival stakes demand attacking intent."