England vCongo DR
Over 1.5 Goals sits at 81% because England's 1.95 xG dwarfs Congo DR's 0.85, giving the hosts a decisive 1.10 edge in shot quality.
Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.
England average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (3 competitive matches). Congo DR average 3.5 corners per game away from home this season (2 competitive matches).
Most likely to score or assist
Probabilities from a per-player model on recent form and minutes played.
More predictions for these teams
England vs Congo DR — Head-to-Head
This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between England and Congo DR — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.
The model's verdict for this fixture: England 60% · draw 26% · Congo DR 14%.
Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.
Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.