FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

England 3–0 CzechiaMatch recap & how our call landed · Tuesday, 06 October 2026

England
3–0
England win
Czechia

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was England to win at 87%. Bawler had England at 87%, the draw at 10% and Czechia at 3%. The match finished 3–0.

Pre-match probability vs result

England win
87%
Result
Draw
10%
Czechia win
3%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
3.1 – 0.5
Total 3.5
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.5 against our forecast)

The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.5 of our 3.5.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
England to win
Pre-match: 87%
Landed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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