FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Erzurum BB 1–0 SamsunsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Samsunspor or draw at 69%. Bawler had Erzurum BB at 31%, the draw at 27% and Samsunspor at 42%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Erzurum BB win
31%
Result
Draw
27%
Samsunspor win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.2 – 1.5
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Missed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 50%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% as both sides generate nearly identical attacking threat, with combined expected goals of 2.91 suggesting a free-flowing contest neither can control."