FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026

Estrela 0–2 Académico de ViseuMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026

Estrela
0–2
Académico de Viseu win
Académico de Viseu

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was Académico de Viseu or draw at 66%. Bawler had Estrela at 34%, the draw at 26% and Académico de Viseu at 40%. The match finished 0–2.

Pre-match probability vs result

Estrela win
34%
Draw
26%
Académico de Viseu win
40%
Result

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 2
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 2.6
From the match itself

The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

What we said pre-match

"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 78%, grounded in combined expected goals of 2.88 and a tight 4-point win-probability gap that keeps both sides attacking."

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