FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Estrela 2–1 BragaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Braga or draw at 78%. Bawler had Estrela at 22%, the draw at 24% and Braga at 54%. The match finished 2–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Estrela win
22%
Result
Draw
24%
Braga win
54%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.9
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 1
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 0.6
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Medium confidence
Braga to win
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 79%, driven by Braga's 0.76 xG advantage and Roger Fernandes' creative threat on the wing generating 22% of his team's scoring chances."