FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Estrela 2–2 FC FamalicaoMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Famalicao or draw at 72%. Bawler had Estrela at 28%, the draw at 27% and FC Famalicao at 45%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Estrela win
28%
Draw
27%
Result
FC Famalicao win
45%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 1.5
Total 2.7
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
FC Famalicao or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals dominates the forecast at 75% given Famalicao's 0.39 xG advantage and superior 45% win probability in a fixture where combined expected goals reach 2.67."