FT · England: Premier League · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Everton 1–0 Ipswich TownMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 19 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Everton or draw at 79%. Bawler had Everton at 54%, the draw at 24% and Ipswich Town at 21%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Everton win
54%
Result
Draw
24%
Ipswich Town win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.9
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.3 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Everton or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 33%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Everton's 0.91 expected-goals advantage and 58% win probability anchor a Everton or draw forecast (draw or home win at 81%), with Ndiaye's striker role pivotal in converting the xG gap into a result that favors the hosts."