FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Everton 2–2 Manchester UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United or draw at 68%. Bawler had Everton at 32%, the draw at 26% and Manchester United at 43%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Everton win
32%
Draw
26%
Result
Manchester United win
43%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.0 – 0.7
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Everton's push for European football at home meets United's title-race pressure in a fixture where both attackers—Ndiaye and Mbeumo—account for 38% of their sides' expected threat, driving the model's 82% call for Over 1.5 Goals."