Everton and Manchester United drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Manchester United at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Everton had 18 shots (6 on target) to Manchester United's 14 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 0.7.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 68%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Everton and Manchester United drew 2–2. Bawler's model favoured Manchester United at 43% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave the draw 26%. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 4. Everton had 18 shots (6 on target) to Manchester United's 14 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 1.0 to 0.7.
Everton 2–2 Manchester United, played on 06 Sept 2026 in the England: Premier League. Bawler's model had gone into it with Everton 32%, the draw 26% and Manchester United 43%.
Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 1.0–0.7, Shots 18–14, Shots on target 6–3, Shots inside box 14–6, Big chances 1–1, Corners 4–3, Saves 1–4, Fouls 7–11, Offsides 3–1, Yellow cards 3–3.
Yes — both Everton and Manchester United scored, finishing 2–2. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Manchester United or draw 68%, it finished Draw (26% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Landed.