FT · England: EFL Cup · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Everton 1–0 Wolverhampton WanderersMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 16 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Everton or draw at 79%. Bawler had Everton at 54%, the draw at 25% and Wolverhampton Wanderers at 21%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Everton win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Wolverhampton Wanderers win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.7
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−1.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.7 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 1.7 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Everton or draw
Pre-match: 79%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 29%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Everton's 0.75 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability underpin the Everton or draw forecast at 79%, as Ndiaye's 17% team xG share gives the hosts genuine attacking edge despite Wolves striker Armstrong's 21% contribution."