FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Excelsior 1–2 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 15 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had Excelsior at 37%, draw at 30%, PSV Eindhoven at 33%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-2. The model's headline call was Excelsior to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Excelsior win
37%
Draw
30%
Eindhoven win
33%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Away Win
Pre-match: 27%
✓ Won