FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Excelsior 1–2 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Excelsior or draw at 67%. Bawler had Excelsior at 37%, the draw at 30% and PSV Eindhoven at 33%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Excelsior win
37%
Draw
30%
PSV Eindhoven win
33%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (+0.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.0 of our 3.0.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
PSV Eindhoven to win
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.