FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
FC Augsburg 2–2 Bayer LeverkusenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Bayer Leverkusen or draw at 70%. Bawler had FC Augsburg at 30%, the draw at 24% and Bayer Leverkusen at 46%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Augsburg win
30%
Draw
24%
Result
Bayer Leverkusen win
46%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.8
Total 3.3
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.1 – 2.4
From the match itself
The match produced 0.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
Bayer Leverkusen or draw
Pre-match: 70%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's high-confidence call at 84%, with Leverkusen's 1.84 xG—0.39 ahead of Augsburg—signaling attacking intent that overwhelms a defence allowing 1.45 expected shots."