FT · Germany: Bundesliga · Saturday, 12 September 2026
FC Cologne 1–1 Werder BremenMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 12 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Cologne or draw at 79%. Bawler had FC Cologne at 56%, the draw at 24% and Werder Bremen at 21%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Cologne win
56%
Draw
24%
Result
Werder Bremen win
21%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 24%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence call at 80%, backed by Cologne's 0.82 xG advantage and 56% win probability suggesting a dominant performance that breaks through Bremen's 1.09 expected output."