FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 20 September 2026
FC Dallas 0–0 Austin FCMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Dallas or draw at 80%. Bawler had FC Dallas at 57%, the draw at 23% and Austin FC at 20%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Dallas win
57%
Draw
23%
Result
Austin FC win
20%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 1.1
Total 3.0
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.8 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 3.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Dallas's 60% win forecast rests on a dominant 1.02 expected-goals edge, signaling the home side should control this matchup."