FT · USA: MLS · Sunday, 06 September 2026
FC Dallas 4–3 Sporting Kansas CityMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Dallas to win at 68%. Bawler had FC Dallas at 68%, the draw at 19% and Sporting Kansas City at 13%. The match finished 4–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Dallas win
68%
Result
Draw
19%
Sporting Kansas City win
13%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.3 – 0.9
Total 3.3
Actual
4 – 3
Total 7 (+3.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.7 – 2.7
From the match itself
The match produced 3.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Dallas to win
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"FC Dallas' home win forecast rests on a decisive 1.41 xG advantage, translating to 68% win probability against an opponent generating just 0.94 expected goals."