FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 13 September 2026
FC Famalicao 1–1 Sporting CPMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 13 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Sporting CP or draw at 76%. Bawler had FC Famalicao at 24%, the draw at 27% and Sporting CP at 49%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Famalicao win
24%
Draw
27%
Result
Sporting CP win
49%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.6
Total 2.6
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.6 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.4 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.6 of our 2.6.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Sporting CP or draw
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 26%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Sporting CP's 0.53 expected-goals advantage and 49% win probability make Sporting CP or draw (draw or away win) the high-confidence forecast at 76%, with Viktor Gyökeres's striker role central to their attacking threat despite Famalicão's home turf."