FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Sunday, 06 September 2026
FC Groningen 2–2 FC TwenteMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 06 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente or draw at 69%. Bawler had FC Groningen at 31%, the draw at 25% and FC Twente at 44%. The match finished 2–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Groningen win
31%
Draw
25%
Result
FC Twente win
44%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.7
Total 3.2
Actual
2 – 2
Total 4 (+0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 2.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 83%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 83% because combined expected goals of 3.17 and Twente's 13-point win-probability edge over Groningen suggest an open, attacking contest."