FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Friday, 18 September 2026
FC Groningen 3–0 PEC ZwolleMatch recap & how our call landed · Friday, 18 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Groningen to win at 62%. Bawler had FC Groningen at 62%, the draw at 21% and PEC Zwolle at 17%. The match finished 3–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Groningen win
62%
Result
Draw
21%
PEC Zwolle win
17%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.2 – 1.1
Total 3.3
Actual
3 – 0
Total 3 (−0.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.4 – 0.4
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.3 of our 3.3.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Groningen to win
Pre-match: 62%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Groningen's home advantage and 1.10 expected-goal edge over Zwolle make a home win the 62% forecast, driven by their superior attacking setup."