FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle prediction — Eredivisie · Fri 18 Sept · 19:00 UK

Eredivisie · Fri 18 Sept · 19:00 UK
FC Groningen 62Draw 21PEC Zwolle 17
Our call before kickoff
62%
FC Groningen to win
Landed
3.3
Goals expected
Full time
Final 3–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
79%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
59%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
64%

How it finished

FC Groningen beat PEC Zwolle 3–0. Bawler's model had FC Groningen in front at 62% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. FC Groningen had 17 shots (7 on target) to PEC Zwolle's 9 (1), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 0.4.

FC GroningenFull-time statsPEC Zwolle
52%Possession48%
1.4Expected goals (xG)0.4
17Shots9
7Shots on target1
8Shots inside box4
2Big chances0
5Corners6
1Saves4
7Fouls11
0Offsides0
0Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callFC Groningen to win 62%FC Groningen won (62% called)
Total goals3.33
Both teams to score59%No

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

FC GroningenPEC Zwolle
2.2
Goals+1.1
1.1
26.2
Shots+10.9
15.3
7.5
On target+2.0
5.5
5.9
Corners+0.6
5.4
FC GroningenPEC Zwolle
0.7
Goals+0.3
0.4
11.6
Shots+5.1
6.6
3.4
On target+1.0
2.4
2.8
Corners+0.3
2.5
FC GroningenPEC Zwolle
1.5
Goals+0.8
0.7
14.6
Shots+5.9
8.8
4.1
On target+1.0
3.1
3.1
Corners+0.3
2.9

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
FC Groningen to score89%
Over 1.5 goals84%
PEC Zwolle to score67%
Over 2.5 goals64%

First half — what we expected

FC Groningen
68%
to score before half-time
PEC Zwolle
35%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%

FC GroningenPEC Zwolle
11.61st-half shots6.6
3.41st-half shots on target2.4
2.81st-half corners2.5

First-half chances

57%Chance of 11+ shots12%
39%Chance of 13+ shots<10%
82%Chance of 2+ shots on target65%
43%Chance of 4+ shots on target23%
71%Chance of 2+ corners67%
31%Chance of 4+ corners26%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · FC Groningen11.614.6
Shots · PEC Zwolle6.68.8
Shots on target · FC Groningen3.44.1
Shots on target · PEC Zwolle2.43.1
Corners · FC Groningen2.83.1
Corners · PEC Zwolle2.52.9
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)+1.1 / match
Head-to-head, last 5FC Groningen 0 · Draws 4 · PEC Zwolle 1
PEC Zwolle in their league tableBottom quarter

Head to head

Mar 2026PEC Zwolle 1–1 FC Groningen
Nov 2025FC Groningen 2–2 PEC Zwolle
May 2025PEC Zwolle 2–0 FC Groningen
Dec 2024FC Groningen 0–0 PEC Zwolle
Aug 2023PEC Zwolle 0–0 FC Groningen
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?

FC Groningen beat PEC Zwolle 3–0. Bawler's model had FC Groningen in front at 62% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.3 goals and the match produced 3. FC Groningen had 17 shots (7 on target) to PEC Zwolle's 9 (1), with 52% of the ball against 48%. Expected goals finished 1.4 to 0.4.

What was the final score in FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?

FC Groningen 3–0 PEC Zwolle, played on 18 Sept 2026 in the Netherlands: Eredivisie. Bawler's model had gone into it with FC Groningen 62%, the draw 21% and PEC Zwolle 17%.

What were the stats in FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?

Full-time: Possession 52%–48%, Expected goals (xG) 1.4–0.4, Shots 17–9, Shots on target 7–1, Shots inside box 8–4, Big chances 2–0, Corners 5–6, Saves 1–4, Fouls 7–11, Offsides 0–0, Yellow cards 0–2.

Did both teams score in FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?

No. It finished 3–0, so PEC Zwolle failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 59% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for FC Groningen vs PEC Zwolle right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Groningen to win 62%, it finished FC Groningen won (62% called); Total goals — we said 3.3, it finished 3; Both teams to score — we said 59%, it finished No.

Around this fixture

Eredivisie table →
All fixtures & results →FC Groningen form →PEC Zwolle form →