FT · EUROPE: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 20 August 2026
FC Midtjylland 2–0 RijekaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 20 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Midtjylland to win at 65%. Bawler had FC Midtjylland at 65%, the draw at 22% and Rijeka at 14%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Midtjylland win
65%
Result
Draw
22%
Rijeka win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.0 – 0.8
Total 2.8
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.5 – 0.3
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Midtjylland or draw
Pre-match: 86%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 22%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.