FT · Portugal: Primeira Liga · Sunday, 20 September 2026
FC Porto 3–1 BenficaMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Porto or draw at 66%. Bawler had FC Porto at 39%, the draw at 27% and Benfica at 34%. The match finished 3–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Porto win
39%
Result
Draw
27%
Benfica win
34%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.3
Total 2.7
Actual
3 – 1
Total 4 (+1.3 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.3 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 1.3 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 51%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 74% because Porto's 1.44 xG and Benfica's 1.21 xG combine for 2.65 total, with each side's striker—Aghehowa and Pavlidis—driving 28% of their team's attacking threat."