How it finished
FC Porto beat Benfica 3–1. Bawler's model had FC Porto in front at 39% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. FC Porto had 20 shots (7 on target) to Benfica's 12 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 0.8.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
First-half chances
How the match splits
How to read this
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won FC Porto vs Benfica?
FC Porto beat Benfica 3–1. Bawler's model had FC Porto in front at 39% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 2.7 goals; the match produced 4. FC Porto had 20 shots (7 on target) to Benfica's 12 (3), with 45% of the ball against 55%. Expected goals finished 1.3 to 0.8.
What was the final score in FC Porto vs Benfica?
FC Porto 3–1 Benfica, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the Portugal: Primeira Liga. Bawler's model had gone into it with FC Porto 39%, the draw 27% and Benfica 34%.
What were the stats in FC Porto vs Benfica?
Full-time: Possession 45%–55%, Expected goals (xG) 1.3–0.8, Shots 20–12, Shots on target 7–3, Shots inside box 12–8, Big chances 3–2, Corners 3–3, Saves 1–4, Fouls 17–12, Offsides 2–0, Yellow cards 3–5, Red cards 0–1.
Did both teams score in FC Porto vs Benfica?
Yes — both FC Porto and Benfica scored, finishing 3–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for FC Porto vs Benfica right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said FC Porto or draw 66%, it finished FC Porto won (39% called); Total goals — we said 2.7, it finished 4; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 75%, it finished Landed; Second pick — we said Over 2.5 goals 51%, it finished Landed.