FT · Netherlands: Eredivisie · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
FC Twente 1–0 TelstarMatch recap & how our call landed · Wednesday, 09 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente to win at 68%. Bawler had FC Twente at 68%, the draw at 18% and Telstar at 14%. The match finished 1–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Twente win
68%
Result
Draw
18%
Telstar win
14%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.5 – 1.0
Total 3.5
Actual
1 – 0
Total 1 (−2.5 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.5 – 0.2
From the match itself
The match produced 2.5 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
FC Twente to win
Pre-match: 68%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Twente's home win is the model's high-confidence call at 68%, built on a commanding 1.42 xG advantage that reflects their superior shot-creation threat."