FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 15 August 2026
FC Utrecht 1–4 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 15 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was FC Utrecht or draw at 77%. Bawler had FC Utrecht at 48%, the draw at 29% and AZ Alkmaar at 23%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Utrecht win
48%
Draw
29%
AZ Alkmaar win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.2
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.8 – 1.9
From the match itself
The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 85%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 28%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.