FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Saturday, 15 August 2026
FC Utrecht 1–4 AZ AlkmaarMatch recap & Bawler model verdict · Saturday, 15 August 2026
> 🧠 Model verdict
✗ Result against the lean
Pre-match, Bawler had FC Utrecht at 48%, draw at 29%, AZ Alkmaar at 23%. Against expectation, the match finished 1-4. The model's headline call was FC Utrecht to win.
> Pre-match probability vs result
Utrecht win
48%
Draw
29%
Alkmaar win
23%
Actual ✓
> 🧾 What the model called · and how it landed
High confidence
Over 1.5 Goals
Pre-match: 85%
✓ Won
Outside shot
Over 3.5 Goals
Pre-match: 28%
✓ Won