NETHERLANDS: EredivisieSaturday 15 Aug, 16:45 UTC

FC Utrecht vAZ Alkmaar

Most likely scoreline
1–1
13% of the time · 2.50 goals expected
FC Utrecht 48%Draw 29%AZ Alkmaar 23%
Strongest call
Over 1.5 goals
85%
How we get there
FC UtrechtstepAZ Alkmaar
1.40Base xG · rolling 26-match1.10
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
1.40Final goal estimate — what the model uses1.10
Most likely outcomes
Over 1.5 goals
85%
Over 3.5 goals
28%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Utrecht average 5.0 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches). AZ Alkmaar average 5.4 corners per game away from home this season (25 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
8
9
5
2
1
1
11
13
7
3
1
2
8
9
5
2
3
4
4
2
1
4
1
1
1
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

FC Utrecht fixtures & form →AZ Alkmaar fixtures & form →

Utrecht vs AZ Alkmaar — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Utrecht and AZ Alkmaar — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Utrecht 48% · draw 29% · AZ Alkmaar 23%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Utrecht predictions & form →AZ Alkmaar predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
FC Utrecht 1–4 AZ Alkmaar
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.