FT · NETHERLANDS: Eredivisie · Sunday, 30 August 2026
FC Utrecht 1–6 PSV EindhovenMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 30 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was PSV Eindhoven or draw at 72%. Bawler had FC Utrecht at 28%, the draw at 24% and PSV Eindhoven at 48%. The match finished 1–6.
Pre-match probability vs result
FC Utrecht win
28%
Draw
24%
PSV Eindhoven win
48%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.9
Total 3.3
Actual
1 – 6
Total 7 (+3.7 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.3 – 3.6
From the match itself
The match produced 3.7 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 84%
Landed
Medium confidence
PSV Eindhoven or draw
Pre-match: 72%
Landed
Outside shot
Under 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 36%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.