FT · Europe: Champions League · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Fenerbahce 1–1 AS RomaMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 10 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was AS Roma or draw at 65%. Bawler had Fenerbahce at 35%, the draw at 26% and AS Roma at 39%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
35%
Draw
26%
Result
AS Roma win
39%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.5 – 1.5
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 80% confidence as both sides generate near-identical attacking threat—Fenerbahce 1.47 xG, Roma 1.55 with Paulo Dybala's creative influence—leaving the model's call for an open encounter in Istanbul."