FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Fenerbahce 1–2 BesiktasMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 05 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Fenerbahce or draw at 78%. Bawler had Fenerbahce at 55%, the draw at 23% and Besiktas at 22%. The match finished 1–2.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
55%
Draw
23%
Besiktas win
22%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.9 – 1.1
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 2
Total 3 (−0.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.5 – 1.7
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.1 of our 3.1.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the high-confidence forecast at 81%, backed by Fenerbahce's 0.79 expected-goal advantage and superior attacking profile in a fixture where both sides project 3.06 combined xG."