FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Fenerbahce 8–0 EyupsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fenerbahce to win at 75%. Bawler had Fenerbahce at 75%, the draw at 17% and Eyupspor at 8%. The match finished 8–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fenerbahce win
75%
Result
Draw
17%
Eyupspor win
8%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
2.4 – 0.7
Total 3.1
Actual
8 – 0
Total 8 (+4.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
5.1 – 0.8
From the match itself
The match produced 4.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Fenerbahce to win
Pre-match: 75%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 37%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Fenerbahce's home win is the high-confidence call at 74%, underpinned by a dominant 1.68 xG advantage that reflects their superior chance creation over a visiting side managing just 0.71 expected goals."