Europe: Champions League - QualificationWednesday 05 Aug, 18:00 UTC

Fenerbahce vSK Sturm Graz

Most likely scoreline
0–0
27% of the time · 1.32 goals expected
Fenerbahce 31%Draw 40%SK Sturm Graz 29%
Strongest call
Under 2.5 goals
87%

Under 2.5 Goals dominates at 87% probability because both sides generate just 1.32 combined expected goals—a low-volume script built on Fenerbahçe's marginal 31% win odds.

How we get there
FenerbahcestepSK Sturm Graz
0.60Base xG · rolling 26-match0.68
× 1.13Home advantage · Home× 0.94
no injury adjustment — full squads available per FotMob
0.68Final goal estimate — what the model uses0.64
Most likely outcomes
Under 2.5 goals
87%
Fenerbahce or draw
52%
Draw
27%

Model probabilities for this fixture, ordered by likelihood. Estimates from rolling expected goals — not guarantees.

Fenerbahçe average 6.7 corners per game at home this season (23 competitive matches).

Scoreline distribution · chance of each scoremodel estimate
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
27
17
5
1
1
18
12
4
1
2
6
4
1
3
1
1
4
5
6
home windrawaway win

More predictions for these teams

Fenerbahce fixtures & form →SK Sturm Graz fixtures & form →

Fenerbahce vs SK Sturm Graz — Head-to-Head

This is the first meeting Bawler has on record between Fenerbahce and SK Sturm Graz — the model's ledger starts at model launch, so no earlier fixtures between these two sides have been logged and settled yet.

The model's verdict for this fixture: Fenerbahce 31% · draw 40% · SK Sturm Graz 29%.

Model probabilities are estimates, not guarantees — past results do not decide future ones.

Fenerbahce predictions & form →SK Sturm Graz predictions & form →BTTS predictions →Over 2.5 goals predictions →Full track record →
⚡ Full-time recap available
Fenerbahce 2–0 SK Sturm Graz
See how the model called it · call-by-call verdict · xG vs actual →
More match predictions ▶
Betting picks & odds for this match (18+) →

Model estimates from rolling expected goals — not guaranteed outcomes. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results.