FT · Europe: Europa League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Ferencvaros 4–0 TrabzonsporMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Ferencvaros or draw at 78%. Bawler had Ferencvaros at 54%, the draw at 25% and Trabzonspor at 22%. The match finished 4–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Ferencvaros win
54%
Result
Draw
25%
Trabzonspor win
22%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.8 – 1.1
Total 2.8
Actual
4 – 0
Total 4 (+1.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
3.7 – 0.5
From the match itself
The match produced 1.2 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Ferencvaros or draw
Pre-match: 78%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 54%
Landed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 32%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Ferencvaros' 0.73 expected-goals advantage underpins the Ferencvaros or draw forecast at 78%, suggesting the hosts will either win or draw in a low-scoring contest shaped by their superior chance creation."