FT · Italy: Serie A · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Fiorentina 0–3 FrosinoneMatch recap & how our call landed · Saturday, 29 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Fiorentina or draw at 77%. Bawler had Fiorentina at 52%, the draw at 25% and Frosinone at 23%. The match finished 0–3.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
52%
Draw
25%
Frosinone win
23%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.7 – 1.0
Total 2.8
Actual
0 – 3
Total 3 (+0.2 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.9 – 1.1
From the match itself
The match produced about as many goals as we forecast — within 0.2 of our 2.8.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Fiorentina to win
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 30%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Fiorentina's attacking superiority—generating 0.66 more expected goals than their visitor—makes Over 1.5 Goals the model's 76% call, with striker Kean accounting for over a quarter of the home side's shot quality."