FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Fiorentina 1–1 NapoliMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fiorentina or draw at 65%. Bawler had Fiorentina at 38%, the draw at 27% and Napoli at 35%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fiorentina win
38%
Draw
27%
Result
Napoli win
35%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.4
Total 2.8
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−0.8 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.9 – 1.5
From the match itself
The match produced 0.8 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 76%
Landed
Medium confidence
Over 2.5 goals
Pre-match: 52%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 27%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals carries a 74% forecast because Fiorentina's 1.38 xG and Napoli's 1.28 xG combine for a 2.67 total that tilts decisively toward a multi-goal outcome."