FT · Europe: Conference League - Qualification · Thursday, 27 August 2026
FK Qarabag 1–4 FC TwenteMatch recap & how our call landed · Thursday, 27 August 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was FC Twente or draw at 73%. Bawler had FK Qarabag at 27%, the draw at 24% and FC Twente at 48%. The match finished 1–4.
Pre-match probability vs result
FK Qarabag win
27%
Draw
24%
FC Twente win
48%
Result
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.3 – 1.8
Total 3.1
Actual
1 – 4
Total 5 (+1.9 against our forecast)
The match produced 1.9 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 82%
Landed
Medium confidence
FC Twente or draw
Pre-match: 73%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 38%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals forecasts at 82% as Twente's 0.49 xG edge and 48% win probability signal they'll overwhelm Qarabag's home setup."