FT · Europe: UEFA Nations League · Monday, 05 October 2026

France 4–1 BelgiumMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 05 October 2026

France
4–1
France win
Belgium

Our call before kickoff

Our call landed

Before kickoff our call was France or draw at 69%. Bawler had France at 44%, the draw at 25% and Belgium at 31%. The match finished 4–1.

Pre-match probability vs result

France win
44%
Result
Draw
25%
Belgium win
31%

Goals we expected vs goals scored

Our forecast
1.7 – 1.4
Total 3.0
Actual
4 – 1
Total 5 (+2.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 0.6
From the match itself

The match produced 2.0 more goals than we forecast. That can be sharp finishing, set pieces or attacking quality we under-rated.

Every graded pick · and how it landed

Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 25%
Missed

Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.

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