How it finished
France beat Belgium 4–1. Bawler's model had France in front at 44% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 5. France had 23 shots (8 on target) to Belgium's 5 (2), with 66% of the ball against 34%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 0.6.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half. Shots and corners are not shown for this match — one of these national teams has too few recorded games for us to forecast them.
Our numbers, most likely first
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
First half — what we expected
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 74%
Shots and corners are not shown for international matches yet — national teams play too few games for us to forecast them well.
Model inputs
Head to head
Common questions
Who won France vs Belgium?
France beat Belgium 4–1. Bawler's model had France in front at 44% before kickoff, and that is how it finished. It forecast 3.0 goals; the match produced 5. France had 23 shots (8 on target) to Belgium's 5 (2), with 66% of the ball against 34%. Expected goals finished 2.0 to 0.6.
What was the final score in France vs Belgium?
France 4–1 Belgium, played on 05 Oct 2026 in the Europe: UEFA Nations League. Bawler's model had gone into it with France 44%, the draw 25% and Belgium 31%.
What were the stats in France vs Belgium?
Full-time: Possession 66%–34%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–0.6, Shots 23–5, Shots on target 8–2, Shots inside box 14–3, Big chances 3–1, Corners 9–2, Saves 1–5, Fouls 4–8, Offsides 0–1, Yellow cards 1–2.
Did both teams score in France vs Belgium?
Yes — both France and Belgium scored, finishing 4–1. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 60% before kickoff.
Was Bawler's prediction for France vs Belgium right?
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said France or draw 69%, it finished France won (44% called); Total goals — we said 3.0, it finished 5; Both teams to score — we said 60%, it finished Yes; Graded pick — we said Over 1.5 goals 80%, it finished Landed.