FT · Italy: Serie A · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Frosinone 2–0 ComoMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call missed
Before kickoff our call was Como or draw at 80%. Bawler had Frosinone at 20%, the draw at 24% and Como at 56%. The match finished 2–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Frosinone win
20%
Result
Draw
24%
Como win
56%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.0 – 1.9
Total 2.9
Actual
2 – 0
Total 2 (−0.9 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
2.0 – 2.2
From the match itself
The match produced 0.9 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Como or draw
Pre-match: 80%
Missed
Outside shot
Over 3.5 goals
Pre-match: 34%
Missed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Como's 0.72 expected-goals advantage and 54% win probability make Como or draw (draw or away win) the model's 79% call in a low-scoring fixture tilting toward the visitors."