Frosinone vs Como prediction — Serie A · Sun 20 Sept · 14:00 UK

Serie A · Sun 20 Sept · 14:00 UK
Frosinone 20Draw 24Como 56
Our call before kickoff
80%
Como or draw
Missed
2.9
Goals expected
Full time
Final 2–0
Goal before half-time (before kick-off)
79%
Both teams score (before kick-off)
55%
3+ goals (before kick-off)
56%

How it finished

Frosinone beat Como 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Como at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Frosinone 20%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Frosinone had 22 shots (6 on target) to Como's 27 (8), with 35% of the ball against 65%. On expected goals it was 2.0 to 2.2, so Como created the better chances and still lost the game.

FrosinoneFull-time statsComo
35%Possession65%
2.0Expected goals (xG)2.2
22Shots27
6Shots on target8
15Shots inside box16
3Big chances3
7Corners8
7Saves4
21Fouls8
2Offsides2
3Yellow cards2
What we publishedBeforeAfter
Our callComo or draw 80%Frosinone won (20% called)
Total goals2.92
Both teams to score55%No

Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.

What we expected

What we expected before kickoff.

FrosinoneComo
1.0
Goals+0.8
1.9
15.0
Shots+9.8
24.9
6.3
On target+5.1
11.4
5.9
Corners+5.7
11.6
FrosinoneComo
0.5
Goals
0.6
5.7
Shots+5.8
11.5
2.7
On target+2.4
5.1
2.8
Corners+2.7
5.4
FrosinoneComo
0.5
Goals+0.8
1.3
9.3
Shots+4.0
13.3
3.6
On target+2.7
6.3
3.1
Corners+3.0
6.1

Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.

Our numbers, most likely first

What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.

MarketProbability
Como to score85%
Over 1.5 goals79%
Under 3.5 goals66%
Frosinone to score65%

First half — what we expected

Frosinone
52%
to score before half-time
Como
56%
to score before half-time

Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%

FrosinoneComo
5.71st-half shots11.5
2.71st-half shots on target5.1
2.81st-half corners5.4

First-half chances

<10%Chance of 11+ shots56%
<10%Chance of 13+ shots38%
29%Chance of 4+ shots on target71%
<10%Chance of 6+ shots on target39%
31%Chance of 4+ corners74%
<10%Chance of 6+ corners45%

How the match splits

1st half2nd half
Shots · Frosinone5.79.3
Shots · Como11.513.3
Shots on target · Frosinone2.73.6
Shots on target · Como5.16.3
Corners · Frosinone2.83.1
Corners · Como5.46.1
How to read this

First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).

Model inputs

Expected goals gap (home minus away)-0.8 / match
Head-to-head, last 5Frosinone 4 · Draws 0 · Como 1
Como in their league tableUpper half

Head to head

Feb 2023Como 0–2 Frosinone
Sept 2022Frosinone 2–0 Como
Feb 2022Frosinone 1–2 Como
Sept 2021Como 0–2 Frosinone
Aug 2016Frosinone 3–0 Como
Full-time recap →
Settles publicly at full time · Bitcoin-anchored · verify →

Common questions

Who won Frosinone vs Como?

Frosinone beat Como 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Como at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Frosinone 20%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Frosinone had 22 shots (6 on target) to Como's 27 (8), with 35% of the ball against 65%. On expected goals it was 2.0 to 2.2, so Como created the better chances and still lost the game.

What was the final score in Frosinone vs Como?

Frosinone 2–0 Como, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Frosinone 20%, the draw 24% and Como 56%.

What were the stats in Frosinone vs Como?

Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–2.2, Shots 22–27, Shots on target 6–8, Shots inside box 15–16, Big chances 3–3, Corners 7–8, Saves 7–4, Fouls 21–8, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 3–2.

Did both teams score in Frosinone vs Como?

No. It finished 2–0, so Como failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.

Was Bawler's prediction for Frosinone vs Como right?

Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Como or draw 80%, it finished Frosinone won (20% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No.

Around this fixture

Serie A table →
All fixtures & results →Frosinone form →Como form →