Frosinone beat Como 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Como at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Frosinone 20%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Frosinone had 22 shots (6 on target) to Como's 27 (8), with 35% of the ball against 65%. On expected goals it was 2.0 to 2.2, so Como created the better chances and still lost the game.
Published before kickoff and settled afterwards — misses included. Every call is time-stamped to the Bitcoin blockchain before the match so it cannot be edited later.
What we expected before kickoff.
Each row is drawn on one scale, so a bar means the same length on both sides. Second-half goals are our full-match forecast minus our first half.
What we published for this match, strongest first — our three strongest above the line.
Chance of at least one goal before half-time: 79%
First-half numbers are our full-match forecast split by how much of each side's shooting and corners usually comes before the break. The small bars under each number are that side's most recent first halves (up to six).
Frosinone beat Como 2–0. Bawler's model favoured Como at 56% before kickoff and got it wrong — it gave Frosinone 20%. It forecast 2.9 goals; only 2 were scored. Frosinone had 22 shots (6 on target) to Como's 27 (8), with 35% of the ball against 65%. On expected goals it was 2.0 to 2.2, so Como created the better chances and still lost the game.
Frosinone 2–0 Como, played on 20 Sept 2026 in the Italy: Serie A. Bawler's model had gone into it with Frosinone 20%, the draw 24% and Como 56%.
Full-time: Possession 35%–65%, Expected goals (xG) 2.0–2.2, Shots 22–27, Shots on target 6–8, Shots inside box 15–16, Big chances 3–3, Corners 7–8, Saves 7–4, Fouls 21–8, Offsides 2–2, Yellow cards 3–2.
No. It finished 2–0, so Como failed to score. Bawler's model had put both teams scoring at 55% before kickoff.
Every call is published before kickoff and graded afterwards, misses included. On this match: Our call — we said Como or draw 80%, it finished Frosinone won (20% called); Total goals — we said 2.9, it finished 2; Both teams to score — we said 55%, it finished No.