FT · England: Premier League · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Fulham 1–1 Manchester UnitedMatch recap & how our call landed · Sunday, 20 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Manchester United or draw at 68%. Bawler had Fulham at 32%, the draw at 26% and Manchester United at 42%. The match finished 1–1.
Pre-match probability vs result
Fulham win
32%
Draw
26%
Result
Manchester United win
42%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.4 – 1.6
Total 3.0
Actual
1 – 1
Total 2 (−1.0 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
1.6 – 1.6
From the match itself
The match produced 1.0 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 80%
Landed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 26%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals projects at 79% because both sides generate similar attacking threat—Fulham 1.37 xG and Manchester United 1.56 xG—leaving little defensive margin in a fixture built for multiple goals."