FT · Turkey: Süper Lig · Monday, 14 September 2026
Gaziantep FK 0–0 FenerbahceMatch recap & how our call landed · Monday, 14 September 2026
Our call before kickoff
Our call landed
Before kickoff our call was Fenerbahce or draw at 81%. Bawler had Gaziantep FK at 19%, the draw at 23% and Fenerbahce at 58%. The match finished 0–0.
Pre-match probability vs result
Gaziantep FK win
19%
Draw
23%
Result
Fenerbahce win
58%
Goals we expected vs goals scored
Our forecast
1.1 – 2.0
Total 3.1
Actual
0 – 0
Total 0 (−3.1 against our forecast)
Chances created (xG)
0.6 – 1.3
From the match itself
The match produced 3.1 fewer goals than we forecast. That can be wasteful finishing, strong goalkeeping or chances we over-rated.
Every graded pick · and how it landed
Graded pick · high confidence
Over 1.5 goals
Pre-match: 81%
Missed
Outside shot
Draw
Pre-match: 23%
Landed
Each pick's figure is the one published with it before kickoff. It comes from a separate calculation, so a pick on the result can show a different number from the win/draw/win split above.
What we said pre-match
"Over 1.5 Goals is the model's 81% call here, anchored by Fenerbahce's 2.01 expected goals—nearly double Gaziantep's 1.07—creating a decisive attacking edge."